Our stance hasn’t changed much since last month, when we took a more defensive position in light of the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and broader financial markets, especially equities. Volatility continues to define the landscape, and there’s still little clarity on how trade policies will develop in the near term.
This cautious outlook isn’t just limited to investors. Recent consumer confidence data from both Canada and the U.S. reflect a similar mood. It’s clear that consumers, like market participants, are increasingly uneasy about the potential economic fallout from escalating trade tensions and persistent market instability. (Sources: Conferenceboard.ca)
Not surprising, this uncertainty is starting to take a real toll on business confidence in Canada but also the US. Many companies are holding back, delaying product launches, shelving expansion plans, and pausing hiring decisions. (Source: Conference Board of Canada and NFIB Small Business Optimism Index). This alignment in sentiment highlights just how widespread the apprehension has become, and why a prudent, risk-aware approach feels not only appropriate but necessary right now.
To date, the U.S. has implemented 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico, along with additional duties on goods that don’t meet the criteria under the North American trade agreement. A temporary exemption for compliant items is set to expire on April 2, though the direction and intensity of future tariffs remain unclear. In the latest escalation of his trade war, Trump is readying broad reciprocal duties on all US trade partners this week in what he has referred to as “Liberation Day.”
A senior source within the Ontario government has indicated that Canada may be included in a group of allied countries facing less aggressive tariff measures. According to U.S. trade officials, three tiers of tariff enforcement are currently being considered, from relatively mild to more severe, with the harshest actions aimed at China. However, details remain vague, adding to an already unpredictable environment. In fact, the latest came Sunday evening, when he told reporters he plans to start the like-for-like push with “all countries.”
Here’s a quick update on where things stand across key tariff fronts:
Steel and Aluminum
A 25% U.S. tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries officially took effect on Wednesday, March 12.
European Union
In response, the EU has announced counter-tariffs targeting $28 billion worth of U.S. goods, effective in April. However, some of these measures, such as a 50% duty on American whiskey, have been delayed until mid-April. That move had sparked a strong reaction from President Trump, who threatened a 200% tariff on European spirits in retaliation.
Canada and Mexico
The 25% blanket tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico went live on Tuesday, March 4. Just two days later, Trump announced a temporary pause on tariffs for goods and services that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), extending until April 2. Canada, in response to the metals tariffs, imposed retaliatory duties on roughly $20 billion worth of U.S. goods.
China
The U.S. has introduced new across-the-board tariffs of approximately 20%, in addition to the existing 10% duties put in place during Trump’s first term. China responded with its own set of tariffs, up to 15%, targeting U.S. agricultural products like chicken and pork. These went into effect on Monday, March 10.Furthermore, China announced new tariffs on more than $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products, in direct retaliation for the duties imposed by Ottawa back in October.
In Summary
With all that’s going on, we believe it’s wise to maintain our cautious stance for the time being. The combination of unresolved trade issues, weakened consumer sentiment, and slower business activity signals that the market remains on shaky ground. While there’s hope that upcoming negotiations could provide some much-needed clarity, things remain murky for now.
We’ll continue monitoring developments closely and stand ready to adapt our strategy as needed, staying flexible, managing risk, and above all, protecting our investments through this uncertain stretch.
We thank you for your continued trust and we welcome you to reach out to us with any questions you may have.
This information has been prepared by Kian Ghanei and Terry Fay who are Portfolio Managers for iA Private Wealth Inc. and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of iA Private Wealth. The information contained in this newsletter comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The information contained herein may not apply to all types of investors. The [Investment Advisor/Portfolio Manager] can open accounts only in the provinces in which they are registered.
iA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates.